Temporal Assessment of GCM-Driven Hydroclimatic Conditions for the Alberta Oil Sands Region, Canada

Freshwater supplies in most western Canadian watersheds are threatened by the warming of temperatures because it alters the snow-dominated hydrologic patterns that characterize these cold regions. In this study, we used datasets from 12 climate simulations, which are associated with seven global climate models and four future scenarios and are participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, to calculate and assess the historical and future temporal patterns of 13 hydroclimate indicators relevant to water resources management. We conducted linear long-term trend and change analyses on their annual time series to provide insight into the potential regional impacts of the detected changes on water availability for all users. We implemented our framework on the Alberta oil sands region in Canada to support the monitoring of environmental changes in this region, relative to the established baseline 1985–2014. Our analysis indicates a persistent increase in the occurrence of extreme hot temperatures, fewer extreme cold temperatures, and an increase in warm spells and heatwaves, while precipitation-related indices show minor changes. Consequently, deficits in regional water availability during summer and water-year periods, as depicted by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices, are expected. The combined effects of the strong climate warming signals and the small increases in precipitation annual amounts generally detected in this study suggest that drier conditions may become severe and frequent in the Alberta oil sands region. The challenging climate change risks identified for this region should therefore be continuously monitored, updated, and integrated to support a sustainable management for all water users.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Short Name of Publication Temporal Assessment of GCM-Driven Hydroclimatic Conditions for the Alberta Oil Sands Region, Canada
Deliverable Type Journal Article
Program Catagory
Program Type OSM
Author Alida Thiombiano, Alain Pietroniro, Tricia Stadnyk, Hyung Eum, Babak Farjad, Anil Gupta, and Barrie Bonsal
Periodical Title American Meteorological Society
Year of Publication 2024
Publishing Organization
Month of Publication January
Periodical Volumes
Page Range
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0051.1
Online ISBN/ISSN
Print ISBN/ISSN
Recomended Citation
Maintainer