An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs) scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

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Short Name of Publication http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10/767
Deliverable Type Science Article
Program Catagory Aquatics
Program Type OSM
Author Babak Farjad, Anil Gupta, Saman Razavi, Monireh Faramarzi,Danielle J. Marceau
Periodical Title Water
Year of Publication 2017
Publishing Organization
Month of Publication
Periodical Volumes 9(12)
Page Range 767
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) 10.3390/w9100767
Online ISBN/ISSN
Print ISBN/ISSN
Recomended Citation Farjad, B., Gupta, A., Razavi, S., Faramarzi, M., & Marceau, D. (2017). An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios. Water, 9(12), 767. doi:10.3390/w9100767
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